.


회원 언론기고 및 출판





<코리아헤럴드> 박상식 / How to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat?

페이지 정보

작성일2018-05-30 17:03 조회1,084회 댓글0건

본문

[Park Sang-seek] How to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat?

2016-10-19 15:08

Since North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test on Oct. 9 this year, both South Korean and US governments, political leaders, scholars, research organizations and mass media have put forward their solutions to the issue. They can be classified into two categories: solutions through negotiations and solutions through confrontational actions.

Those who believe that the North Korean leadership is suffering from a siege mentality advocate solutions through negotiations. They suggest five types of negotiating formats: the US-North Korea bilateral talks; the US-South and North Korea trilateral talks; the US-South and North Korea-China quadrilateral talks; and the six-party talks.

They propose five topics as the subjects of negotiations: the abolition of the North Korean nuclear programs and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula; a peace treaty replacing the existing armistice agreement; the end of the US-South Korea mutual defense treaty and the China-North Korea mutual assistance treaty; the establishment of diplomatic relationships between the US and North Korea and between Japan and North Korea; and the disarmament and arms control of both Koreas’ armed forces. Some suggest the first topic; others the second topic or both second and third topics; and still others all five topics.

As to the denuclearization of North Korea, the US government still prefers the six-party talks. But China, South and North Korea may prefer a different format, depending on the subjects of the negotiations. Many opinion-makers suggest the North Korea-US bilateral talks or the quadrilateral talks of the two Koreas, the US and China. Concerning a peace treaty to replace the existing armistice agreement, the US proposes a US-North Korea bilateral negotiation, but South and North Korea have not made any official statement on the subject, although North Korea has rejected the US-North Korea bilateral talks only for the discussion of the denuclearization issue.

The multilateral talks can take either a four-party format which includes the main actors in the Korean War (the two Koreas and the US and China) or a six-party format which includes the six countries in Northeast Asia. Whether these multi-party talks take a quadrilateral or hexagonal format, this peace maintenance structure will have to turn into a regional collective security system (or a concert of powers system). To establish this system, all the five topics mentioned above should be discussed and resolved.

The South Korean and US governments, some political leaders, scholars, research organizations and mass media advocate confrontational actions, condemning the conciliatory approaches.

One approach promoted by the US and South Korean governments and supported by many conservative scholars, mass media and research organizations holds that in resorting to all kinds of maneuvers and provocations, North Korea has rejected and ignored all the conciliatory offers by the US and South Korea and has continued its nuclear development and perfected its nuclear capabilities. Now, the only alternative left to the US and South Korea is that the two allies, together with the UN, impose complete economic and financial sanctions on North Korea, while urging UN member states to downgrade their diplomatic relations with North Korea and to expel it from international organizations. They particularly demand China, which is the main supporter of North Korea, to fully execute the economic sanctions required by the UNSC resolutions and put pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear program. Meanwhile, the two allies should maintain various kinds of military measures including preparations for a preemptive attack.

On the other hand, the US and South Korea should jointly guarantee China and North Korea that the US forces would never resort to pre-emptive attacks against North Korea unless it is clear the latter is about to launch a nuclear attack. They should also assure China the US would never station its troops in North Korea even in such a case the US-South Korean forces occupy North Korea.

Another proposal supported by some moderates is that the US-North Korea bilateral talks or the six-party talks can be reopened to discuss the complete denuclearization of North Korea together with the complete denuclearization of South Korea, and a non-aggression treaty between the US and North Korea guaranteed by the other concerned parties, accompanied by economic aid, the normalization of diplomatic relations between North Korea and the US and between North Korea and Japan, and assistance to North Korea’s participation in the international economic and financial organizations.

Which approach is appropriate, negotiation or confrontation?  Unless we have the accurate intelligence on the nature of the North Korean leadership and the true motive of its nuclear ambition, it will be impossible to choose the best strategy toward North Korea’s nuclear threat. In concrete terms, the correct intelligence on the following questions should be secured.

First, is Kim Jong-un in firm control of the North Korean elites?  Second, is what the North Korean regime says about the purpose and degree of development of its nuclear program actually true or a bluff or faint motion?  Third, are the quid pro quos for the dismantlement of its nuclear program demanded by North Korea such as a peace treaty between the US and North Korea, a Korean Peninsula peace regime, the end of the South Korea-US alliance and a disarmament and arms control treaty between the two Koreas a mere camouflage or its ultimate aim to communize South Korea?

Finally, do the US and South Korean authorities have accurate intelligence on the exact locations of Kim Jong-un and his Praetorian Guard, nuclear weapons and launching apparatus?

By Park Sang-seek

Park Sang-seek is a former rector of the Graduate Institute of Peace Studies at Kyung Hee University and the author of “Globalized Korea and Localized Globe.” He can be reached at parksangseek@hotmail.com. ― Ed.

댓글목록

등록된 댓글이 없습니다.

  Total 447건 7 페이지
회원 언론기고 및 출판 목록
번호 제목
267 <외교열전> 한중수교 기틀 닦은 중국 어뢰정 사…
일자: 03-09 | 조회: 3090
2012-03-09
3090
266 <외교열전> 9시간 만에 막 내린 모스크바 인질…
일자: 03-09 | 조회: 2945
2012-03-09
2945
265 <외교열전> '태산명동서일필'로 끝난 코리아게이…
일자: 03-09 | 조회: 3169
2012-03-09
3169
264 <외교열전> '초근목피' 들고 유엔 간 외무장관…
일자: 03-09 | 조회: 2212
2012-03-09
2212
263 <외교열전> 北 이집트대사 망명사건 '막전막후'…
일자: 03-09 | 조회: 3306
2012-03-09
3306
262 <외교열전> 우루과이 쌀협상서 '日 몽니' 눌렀…
일자: 03-09 | 조회: 3616
2012-03-09
3616
261 <외교열전> '법전' 든 대사관..유족 恨 풀어…
일자: 02-24 | 조회: 3253
2012-02-24
3253
260 <외교열전> 사선 넘나든 남북大使 '동반 탈출'…
일자: 02-24 | 조회: 5977
2012-02-24
5977
259 <외교열전> 김만철 일가를 데려와라
일자: 02-24 | 조회: 3266
2012-02-24
3266
258 <외교열전> 경수로 노형결정 '피말리는' 막전막…
일자: 02-24 | 조회: 2759
2012-02-24
2759
257 <외교열전> '3중국' APEC 가입 한국외교가…
일자: 02-24 | 조회: 3425
2012-02-24
3425
256 <외교열전> 월남탈출 교민,생계위해 이란行 택…
일자: 02-24 | 조회: 2900
2012-02-24
2900
255 <외교열전> 페루 日대사관저 인질극 '공포의72…
일자: 02-24 | 조회: 1924
2012-02-24
1924
254 <외교열전> '마유미' 극비호송..그 숨막혔던 …
일자: 02-24 | 조회: 4013
2012-02-24
4013
253 [시론-이춘선] 여수엑스포 성공하려면
일자: 02-23 | 조회: 1676
2012-02-23
1676
252 [시론-이춘선] 2조달러 발상은 中南美시장에서
일자: 02-23 | 조회: 1299
2012-02-23
1299
251 이념투쟁으로 변질된 한·미 FTA / 김용규
일자: 11-14 | 조회: 1584
2011-11-14
1584
250 <외교열전> '南核' 안보리 문턱까지 갔었다 /…
일자: 09-28 | 조회: 1681
2011-09-28
1681
249 <외교열전> 北대사 막판까지 유엔 동시가입 몰랐…
일자: 09-28 | 조회: 1965
2011-09-28
1965
248 <외교열전> 美中 정찰기 충돌갈등, 한국이 풀…
일자: 09-28 | 조회: 2109
2011-09-28
2109
247 <외교열전> 불시착機에 中 미사일 전문가 탔었…
일자: 09-28 | 조회: 3358
2011-09-28
3358
246 <외교열전> 한중수교때 김일성 '자주노선' 선…
일자: 09-28 | 조회: 4153
2011-09-28
4153
245 사회적 시장경제를 위하여 / 박찬진
일자: 09-09 | 조회: 1495
2011-09-09
1495
244 8·15에 생각하는 민주국가의 위기 / 이홍구
일자: 08-16 | 조회: 1369
2011-08-16
1369
243 2012 북한의 변화에 거는 기대 / 이홍구
일자: 08-16 | 조회: 1359
2011-08-16
1359
242 분열의 계절 … 통합의 선구자들 / 이홍구
일자: 08-16 | 조회: 1393
2011-08-16
1393
241 [Park Sang-seek] War between A…
일자: 08-09 | 조회: 1806
2011-08-09
1806
240 한반도로 몰려드는 세계 정치경제의 먹구름 / 윤영관
일자: 08-09 | 조회: 1469
2011-08-09
1469
239 [ESSAY ] 이은주의 사진으로 만난 인연 / 이인호
일자: 08-09 | 조회: 3633
2011-08-09
3633
238 중국 급부상에 맞춘 전략 찾자 / 박종선
일자: 08-09 | 조회: 2088
2011-08-09
2088
게시물 검색







한국외교협회 | 개인정보 보호관리자: 박경훈
E-mail: kcfr@hanmail.net

주소: 서울시 서초구 남부순환로 294길 33
TEL: 02-2186-3600 | FAX: 02-585-6204

Copyright(c) 한국외교협회 All Rights Reserved.
hosting by 1004pr